Macau Casino Stocks Soar 59% Since April Amid Stunning Rebound in Gaming Revenue
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Macau’s casino sector has staged a remarkable comeback, with shares surging 59% since April, according to Bloomberg, marking the strongest rally in over a year. The turnaround comes after a period of cautious outlooks and lukewarm investor sentiment, as the city’s vital gaming industry faced headwinds from uneven tourist recovery and macroeconomic uncertainties. Now, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) consistently beating forecasts and tourism numbers on a sharp upward trajectory, optimism has returned—and in force.
This rebound is being driven by multiple converging factors. Gross gaming revenue reached MOP21.19 billion in May, up 5% from the previous year and 12.4% from April. June followed closely with MOP21.06 billion, a 19% year-on-year increase. Even the first half of July brought in MOP18.6 billion, marking an 11.6% rise compared to the same period in 2024. Year-to-date, Macau’s casinos have raked in MOP132.35 billion—an impressive 36.7% rise over last year.
It’s a stark contrast from earlier this year, when analysts warned that the industry’s post-pandemic recovery could stall due to economic softness in mainland China, muted VIP activity, and global financial uncertainty. Those concerns now seem increasingly distant as operators like Melco Resorts & Entertainment and MGM China Holdings lead the charge, their stock prices climbing 95% and 72% respectively since the spring.
Tourism has been a critical driver of the resurgence. Through June, Macau welcomed 19.22 million visitors, a 14.9% increase over last year. While mainland Chinese travelers remain the primary engine of growth, international arrivals have begun to pick up, supported by improved transport links and a wider range of attractions. High-profile concerts and entertainment events, including sold-out shows by Jacky Cheung and Korean star G-Dragon, have attracted broader audiences and significantly boosted foot traffic.
The shift in momentum has led analysts to revise their outlooks. Seaport Research Partners recently upgraded its full-year GGR forecast by 7%, now expecting 9% growth in the second half of 2025. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg Intelligence index tracking Macau’s gaming sector has outperformed the broader Hang Seng Composite Index, with valuations still considered attractive. Casino stocks are currently trading at 8.8 times estimated forward EBITDA—well below the five-year average of about 14 times—suggesting room for further upside.
This sudden and dramatic shift in sentiment highlights just how volatile Macau’s financial outlook has been. Just a few months ago, the sector was navigating a cautious recovery, hampered by concerns over regulatory shifts, spending fatigue, and geopolitical tensions. Now, with strong visitor numbers and spending surging across both gaming and nongaming sectors, the tone has flipped to one of renewed confidence.
Analysts point to a favorable visa policy, expanded travel infrastructure, and continued diversification of entertainment offerings as key tailwinds. Morningstar’s Jennifer Song emphasized the long-term appeal of the sector, calling current valuations “appealing” in light of the supportive fundamentals. Jefferies added that July is expected to be another “above-trend month,” with channel checks confirming that momentum is holding firm.
As the market awaits upcoming quarterly results and monthly GGR updates, all eyes will be on whether this rally has staying power. But for now, Macau’s casino industry appears to have pulled off one of the most impressive turnarounds in recent memory—transforming from a cautionary tale into a growth story once again.
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